One horizon
for the whole book.
A portfolio-level survival function, not n independent ones. Breaches correlate, so the weighted mean is too permissive and the minimum is too conservative.
Twelve positions, three bets.
Nineteen campaigns funded by the same treasury and expiring within a fortnight of one another are, for practical purposes, one campaign.
A diversified book on paper can be one bet on one treasury's emission policy.
No single-pool query surfaces this. It is only visible in the correlation structure.
Correlation is the feature most likely to be underestimated in a young system.
How this works
The joint distribution is estimated with a Gaussian copula over the marginal survival curves, with correlation drawn from shared sponsors, shared assets, and chain-level subsidies.
01
Takes the whole book
Positions and weights in one request, rather than n separate point queries.
02
Couples the marginals
Marginal survival curves joined by a copula, with correlation from shared campaign sponsors and assets.
03
Returns effective exposure
The portfolio horizon, the earliest binding position, and the effective number of independent bets.
What it reads, derives,
and does with it.
What it reads
The book, as supplied.
What it derives
What it derives across positions.
What it does with it
What it derives across positions.
“The visible depth of a pool and the durability of that depth are different quantities, and on-chain systems currently conflate them.”
Every covered pool, scored in public.
Liquidity Intelligence Infrastructure. Read the horizon before the capital moves, not after.